Very unusual and interesting combinations this year 2011!
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Monday, January 31, 2011
We Are All 111
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Calling Tenang, Are You There?
All “ceramahs” have to stop. Time of writing for this forecast is12.09 a.m. Sunday morning.
I am not over-zealous nor conservative with the figures but rather on the gut-feel of what Sunday evening will bring for this Tenang by-election.
My bottom dollar is still for cikgu Normala. The first woman “adun” from PAS is a good omen for Johor and she is going to set free the butterfly effect in our Malaysian political scenario for a change!
There are a number of forecasts in favour for BN to win in this Tenang by-election even with a lesser majority. Well, I beg to differ.
It is difficult to garner support from the Malays and for PR, the best they could be happy with, is even with 30% support from them.
The hope is from the Chinese and if PR could garner 75% and above, it will be a different ball game.
PR has the edge with the Indians support even at 55% will be a good deal.
The probability of a win for PR in this forecast is much depended on the turnout to vote. If the turnout is between 79% and 84% then a slim margin of majority for PR will definitely be an upset for BN.
With a negligible number of postal votes, then it is not difficult to create an off-set.
Total Votes : 14,753
Expected Turnout
Malays : 7,014 (47.54%)
(80% - 85%) 5,611 – 5,962
Chinese : 5,765 (39,08%)
(78% - 83%) 4,497 – 4,785
Indians : 1,781 (12.07%)
(78% - 83%) 1,389 – 1,478
Others : 190 ( 1.29%)
(78% - 83%) 148 - 158
Total 14,750
11,645 – 12,383 (78.9 – 83.9%)
Votes Cast For ..............Barisan Nasional .................Pakatan Rakyat
Malays ...........................(70%) 3,928 – 4,173 ...........(30%) 1,683 – 1,789
Chinese .........................(25%) 1,124 – 1,196 .............(75%) 3,373 – 3,587
Indians .........................(45%) 625 - 665 ...................(55%) 764 - 813
Others ..........................(50%) 74 - 79 ...................(50%) 74 - 79
Total ......................................5,751 – 6,113 ..........................5,894 – 6268
Majority to PR : 143 – 155 votes.
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Blatant Abuse of AG's Power
Over a misunderstanding in a swimming pool, a 14-year old M.Mughilan was already jailed for 2.5 months without trial.
The incident happened on the 3.August 2010 at Pantai Hill Park Condominium, Kuala Lumpur.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
The excitement is still brewing in Tenang
As each day passes by, the vibration from the Tenang voters become stronger for PAS candidate. It is going to be a tough challenge for PAS initially but it may not be necessary so because of BN candidate. It is all about the wrong choice!
The usual BN election goodies is the trademark of corrupt indulgence and the Chinese 1Malaysia NGO’s team may come from a small portion of the 25% Chinese who are still the staunch supporters of MCA.
You may wonder where the percentage (25%) is plucked up from.
Let’s look at the past Kuala Terenggannu by-election. The Chinese played a crucial and smart move. They too received “ang pow” and oranges from BN/MCA but PAS won.
The Tenang Chinese is playing the same mind game and that is, the whole family would not go for one party. Even though one particular party is earmarked to be cast aside, but to keep it floating for enough air is the correct strategy.
MCA meant a lot to the older Chinese generation who are more attached to sentiments but the young generation gives two-hoots for MCA and BN.
A typical Chinese family is averaged at six persons per household. Somehow, not all will vote for PAS or BN. Take 1 in a family of 6 (17 %) or 2 in a family of 6 (34 %) to vote for BN is a pragmatic hypothesis.
With a little juggling the plus/minus figure will come close to 75 % in favour for PAS and 25 % for BN.
On the surface, PAS will win in Tenang. What helps in this by-election are the various events that have taken place recently.
Chua Soi Lek’s Factor
Anyone for the matter who could survive his sexual tryst made public and emerged the leader of his community, he is definitely not a political novice.
Many readers did not take kindly over the comments made by Chua Soi Lek about Teoh Beng Hock’s finding and his recent incessant remarks about Normala not shaking hands with males. The MCA president is not doing all these without a reason.
Crossing the Rubicon at Tenang is what MCA president is riding on. It does not matter if the MCA members in Tenang agree or disagree, because this is his calculated shot where he has nothing to lose. Being made to hold a double edge sword and in a situation between the devil and deep blue sea, his desperation cannot be veiled for too long.
He stirred the hornet’s nest of the Chinese and provoked the bee’s hive of the Malays. A long double-barrel could be held at his temple and having to walk a one-way street, he would rather help PAS to win in a way he finds satisfaction by flexing his muscles in a smart way.
Whoever wins in Tenang, Chua Soi Lek wins.
Perkasa’s Dread
The emergence of Perkasa has made more fence-sitters come to their senses. Like charlatans promulgating virtue and righteousness, they have fallen flat even among the muslims.
Perkasa is deemed to be a political catalyst with racist purpose to create fear and misunderstanding among the people. The unmasking of Perkasa’s deeds is from their own controversy like charlatans would do and should be!
Malaysia is in a dire need for truth but not for spewing hatred and racism. No matter whoever is in the political divide, they know Perkasa serves only UMNO.
Interlok Awakening
If only the Indians could harness their cooperation and stop forming new political parties, then you have stronger voice and command the respect that you deserve.
The more divided you are the easier it is for manipulation. When are you going to see the value of cooperation to stop the Indians from being taken for granted?
Interlok has reached Tenang! The Indian community will not keep quiet will they? Like the Chinese, there are Indians who are still the staunch supporters of BN who will never learn.
Can this small populace of about 1,780 Indians create an impact to derail BN with a wider majority? You bet your “tutu” that together with the Chinese and Malays, they are making the Butterfly Theory to take effect at Tenang!
PR should be consistent in their “ceramahs” by explaining what the rakyat should know. For BN and PR to make a slip from now on will be very costly indeed.
The usual BN election goodies is the trademark of corrupt indulgence and the Chinese 1Malaysia NGO’s team may come from a small portion of the 25% Chinese who are still the staunch supporters of MCA.
You may wonder where the percentage (25%) is plucked up from.
Let’s look at the past Kuala Terenggannu by-election. The Chinese played a crucial and smart move. They too received “ang pow” and oranges from BN/MCA but PAS won.
The Tenang Chinese is playing the same mind game and that is, the whole family would not go for one party. Even though one particular party is earmarked to be cast aside, but to keep it floating for enough air is the correct strategy.
MCA meant a lot to the older Chinese generation who are more attached to sentiments but the young generation gives two-hoots for MCA and BN.
A typical Chinese family is averaged at six persons per household. Somehow, not all will vote for PAS or BN. Take 1 in a family of 6 (17 %) or 2 in a family of 6 (34 %) to vote for BN is a pragmatic hypothesis.
With a little juggling the plus/minus figure will come close to 75 % in favour for PAS and 25 % for BN.
On the surface, PAS will win in Tenang. What helps in this by-election are the various events that have taken place recently.
Chua Soi Lek’s Factor
Anyone for the matter who could survive his sexual tryst made public and emerged the leader of his community, he is definitely not a political novice.
Many readers did not take kindly over the comments made by Chua Soi Lek about Teoh Beng Hock’s finding and his recent incessant remarks about Normala not shaking hands with males. The MCA president is not doing all these without a reason.
Crossing the Rubicon at Tenang is what MCA president is riding on. It does not matter if the MCA members in Tenang agree or disagree, because this is his calculated shot where he has nothing to lose. Being made to hold a double edge sword and in a situation between the devil and deep blue sea, his desperation cannot be veiled for too long.
He stirred the hornet’s nest of the Chinese and provoked the bee’s hive of the Malays. A long double-barrel could be held at his temple and having to walk a one-way street, he would rather help PAS to win in a way he finds satisfaction by flexing his muscles in a smart way.
Whoever wins in Tenang, Chua Soi Lek wins.
Perkasa’s Dread
The emergence of Perkasa has made more fence-sitters come to their senses. Like charlatans promulgating virtue and righteousness, they have fallen flat even among the muslims.
Perkasa is deemed to be a political catalyst with racist purpose to create fear and misunderstanding among the people. The unmasking of Perkasa’s deeds is from their own controversy like charlatans would do and should be!
Malaysia is in a dire need for truth but not for spewing hatred and racism. No matter whoever is in the political divide, they know Perkasa serves only UMNO.
Interlok Awakening
If only the Indians could harness their cooperation and stop forming new political parties, then you have stronger voice and command the respect that you deserve.
The more divided you are the easier it is for manipulation. When are you going to see the value of cooperation to stop the Indians from being taken for granted?
Interlok has reached Tenang! The Indian community will not keep quiet will they? Like the Chinese, there are Indians who are still the staunch supporters of BN who will never learn.
Can this small populace of about 1,780 Indians create an impact to derail BN with a wider majority? You bet your “tutu” that together with the Chinese and Malays, they are making the Butterfly Theory to take effect at Tenang!
PR should be consistent in their “ceramahs” by explaining what the rakyat should know. For BN and PR to make a slip from now on will be very costly indeed.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Suara Rakyat - will the Federal Government take heed?
23 January 2011, Kelana Jaya Stadium. The voice of the rakyat was clarion. They want their choice of State Government be respected.
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Overwhelming PAS Supporters
The serene town of Labis came to life in the morning of 22 January 2011.
It was an unprecedented sight for Labis folks to see an influx of more than 10,000 PR supporters for PAS candidate.
They were sauntering to the nomination centre on the occasion for Tenang by-election.
Saturday, January 22, 2011
The Butterfly Effect will start at Tenang
This Tenang by-election is the threshold for the butterfly theory to take effect. The advent of this change will prevail in the state of Johor liken a floodgate with waning resistance to hold on desperately against the onslaught of the undercurrent of wanting change.
Johor is known to be BN stronghold and the fall to be for BN is beginning at Tenang. It will be dismantled piecemeal from each constituency comes the next General Election or by-election(s) that may happen from now till then.
The present political situations are not too chaotic to comprehend and say what you like, the situation is similar to pre 2008 where the country was run on auto-pilot mode except for now, it is piloted by an acrophobic captain.
For the butterfly effect to take place, a triggering point is needed. Where else could it be if not for Tenang to start the ball rolling?
With Normala Sudirman as the candidate for PAS and Mohd Azahar Ibrahim for BN, it is a new ball game after all.
The “ceramah” begins tonight will be with blazing six-shooter drawn from the hip. The highlights will be when top guns from both sides coming down with bazookas to blast each other to pulp. This may be my figurative expression over how I deem the political scenario seems to be and be ready to bet you “tutu” that this by-election will a steal compared to the last 13 that had taken place.
If Normala speaks during the ceramah, her eloquence will outshine Azahar’s. Judge for yourself!
Biting issues that plague Malaysians are like leprosy that is still without solutions let alone hope to go through each day with a reasonable three meals to fill the hungry stomachs. The cost of living will make everyone feels the pinch which entails the turning point for a change.
The 2008 tsunami was the result of people being angry with BN that PR reap the fruits, and today, people made hungry by BN will look to PR for hope.
There is no point shouting about racism, religion or even supremacy when right before our eyes nothing could blur our visions about the truth that had befallen on our country.
It is not Tenang by-election that the BN government is using as a yardstick to determine a snap GE. If BN wins comfortable (the PM wants more than 5,000 majority) then snap GE will be sooner and if lost it is otherwise. You can bet your “tutu” that win or lose for BN at Tenang, snap GE will be this year because the longer it drags the more difficult it is for BN to win.
Today is just the beginning of a long battle to fight between BN and PR for Tenang. By talking to the people and what the nightly ceremahs could offer, the result will not be difficult to forecast then.
I am filled with anxiety wanting to get that “special” feel how Tenang’s folks would think and the choice they have in mind. Hopefully, it would be a 50-50 chance either way without a wide margin of favouring majority.
Video on Tenang Nomination and result forecast to follow.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Sunday, January 16, 2011
10,000 to throng Kelana Jaya Stadium
Hormati Suara Rakyat Selangor held a Press Release on the 14 January 2011 at KLSCAH. Civil Societies and Selangorians to hold a public rally to pressure the Chief Secretary to declare Khusrin’s appointment null and void.
The public rally will be held on the 23 January at Kelana Jaya Stadium from 4.00 p.m. to 7.00 p.m.
10,000 people are expected to participate in this public rally.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
The Last Man Standing
A small crowd of friends and sympathizers gathered at Jalan Duta Court on the 7th. Jan 2011 to show support to Murugan.
He stands fast to his beliefs of his constitutional right to peaceful assembly should be lauded.
Ever since 2007, his group of 22 arrested had dwindled to him standing alone today. He is the last man standing and is adamant about it!
They cannot take away our self-respect if we do not give it to them.
Mahatma Gandhi.
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Human Rights Conference
FIRST NATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS CONFERENCE
ON THE FUTURE OF MARGINALISED AND MINORITY COMMUNITIES IN MALAYSIA.
23rd JANUARY 2011
KUALA LUMPUR.
HINDRAF, Common Interest Group of Malaysia (CIGMA), Borneo Resources Institute and the Human Rights Foundation of the UK invites concerned parties to participate with us both to co-host and to present papers at the First National Conference on Human Rights on the Future of Marginalized and Minority Communities involving communities from both East & West Malaysia planned to be held on the 23rd of January 2011 at the Chinese Assembly Hall Kuala Lumpur.
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