All “ceramahs” have to stop. Time of writing for this forecast is12.09 a.m. Sunday morning.
I am not over-zealous nor conservative with the figures but rather on the gut-feel of what Sunday evening will bring for this Tenang by-election.
My bottom dollar is still for cikgu Normala. The first woman “adun” from PAS is a good omen for Johor and she is going to set free the butterfly effect in our Malaysian political scenario for a change!
There are a number of forecasts in favour for BN to win in this Tenang by-election even with a lesser majority. Well, I beg to differ.
It is difficult to garner support from the Malays and for PR, the best they could be happy with, is even with 30% support from them.
The hope is from the Chinese and if PR could garner 75% and above, it will be a different ball game.
PR has the edge with the Indians support even at 55% will be a good deal.
The probability of a win for PR in this forecast is much depended on the turnout to vote. If the turnout is between 79% and 84% then a slim margin of majority for PR will definitely be an upset for BN.
With a negligible number of postal votes, then it is not difficult to create an off-set.
Total Votes : 14,753
Expected Turnout
Malays : 7,014 (47.54%)
(80% - 85%) 5,611 – 5,962
Chinese : 5,765 (39,08%)
(78% - 83%) 4,497 – 4,785
Indians : 1,781 (12.07%)
(78% - 83%) 1,389 – 1,478
Others : 190 ( 1.29%)
(78% - 83%) 148 - 158
Total 14,750
11,645 – 12,383 (78.9 – 83.9%)
Votes Cast For ..............Barisan Nasional .................Pakatan Rakyat
Malays ...........................(70%) 3,928 – 4,173 ...........(30%) 1,683 – 1,789
Chinese .........................(25%) 1,124 – 1,196 .............(75%) 3,373 – 3,587
Indians .........................(45%) 625 - 665 ...................(55%) 764 - 813
Others ..........................(50%) 74 - 79 ...................(50%) 74 - 79
Total ......................................5,751 – 6,113 ..........................5,894 – 6268
Majority to PR : 143 – 155 votes.
