All “ceramahs” have to stop. Time of writing for this forecast is12.09 a.m. Sunday morning.
I am not over-zealous nor conservative with the figures but rather on the gut-feel of what Sunday evening will bring for this Tenang by-election.
My bottom dollar is still for cikgu Normala. The first woman “adun” from PAS is a good omen for Johor and she is going to set free the butterfly effect in our Malaysian political scenario for a change!
There are a number of forecasts in favour for BN to win in this Tenang by-election even with a lesser majority. Well, I beg to differ.
It is difficult to garner support from the Malays and for PR, the best they could be happy with, is even with 30% support from them.
The hope is from the Chinese and if PR could garner 75% and above, it will be a different ball game.
PR has the edge with the Indians support even at 55% will be a good deal.
The probability of a win for PR in this forecast is much depended on the turnout to vote. If the turnout is between 79% and 84% then a slim margin of majority for PR will definitely be an upset for BN.
With a negligible number of postal votes, then it is not difficult to create an off-set.
Total Votes : 14,753
Expected Turnout
Malays : 7,014 (47.54%)
(80% - 85%) 5,611 – 5,962
Chinese : 5,765 (39,08%)
(78% - 83%) 4,497 – 4,785
Indians : 1,781 (12.07%)
(78% - 83%) 1,389 – 1,478
Others : 190 ( 1.29%)
(78% - 83%) 148 - 158
Total 14,750
11,645 – 12,383 (78.9 – 83.9%)
Votes Cast For ..............Barisan Nasional .................Pakatan Rakyat
Malays ...........................(70%) 3,928 – 4,173 ...........(30%) 1,683 – 1,789
Chinese .........................(25%) 1,124 – 1,196 .............(75%) 3,373 – 3,587
Indians .........................(45%) 625 - 665 ...................(55%) 764 - 813
Others ..........................(50%) 74 - 79 ...................(50%) 74 - 79
Total ......................................5,751 – 6,113 ..........................5,894 – 6268
Majority to PR : 143 – 155 votes.
betul....
ReplyDeleteTotally agree with you but whatever it is a sure win for PR
ReplyDeleteLKY is AWESOME !
ReplyDeleteHe plays CHESS @ a GEOPOLITICAL LEVEL always 3 moves ahead.
The audience is not Singapore.
He is HELPING NAJIB & ROSMAH consolidate UMNO's influence.
By slighting the Malays, he anticipated the knee jerk or instinctive reaction of Malays in the Semenanjung, that is "circling the wagons" against the Chinese BOOGEYMAN.
In essence TORPEDOING any chance Anwar or PAKATAN have of establishing a beachhead @ the Tenang/Labis By-Election and for the upcoming Malaysian General Elections.
He wants a tarnished Najib & UMNO to remain in power to secure Singapore's future.
Pakatan majority by 140-ish votes? No way.
ReplyDeletePredicting such a high % turnout ratio is a bit unrealistic. Any specific reasons why it is expected to be in the high 70's? Postal votes can still be manipulated to give JK a couple hundreds more votes..... No?
ReplyDeleteturnout seems a little high for by election, I would expect 60-70% turnout
ReplyDelete